MTL beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.6, DAL 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Lane Hutson scored at 3:40 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:42 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Phillip Danault, Alexandre Carrier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:53 |  DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 10:14 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 11:59 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:39 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 11:07 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| OT 3:40 | MTL | Lane Hutson from Phillip Danault | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Hutson D | 29:14 | 1 | 1 | +1.30 | +0.17 | +0.71 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 17:24 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.09 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:46 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sammy Blais L | 9:06 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:55 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 10:35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Beck C | 8:04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:54 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:41 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 23:08 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 15:45 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:06 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:38 | −0.30 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 16:55 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 24:52 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 63:40 | +0.75 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 24:02 | 2 | +1.12 | +0.10 | +1.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:38 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.38 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Petrovic D | 15:25 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 9:34 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:22 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:34 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 18:01 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.23 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:27 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 9:48 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 25:16 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 14:05 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:47 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:45 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.18 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 23:52 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 9:54 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:58 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:57 | −0.56 | +0.09 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 83:09 | −0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.