NSH beat CGY 4–3. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicolas Hague scored at 19:31 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 49% to 97%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:56 |  CGY | Yan Kuznetsov from MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:19 | NSH | Erik Haula from Michael Bunting, Steven Stamkos | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:52 | NSH | Erik Haula from Steven Stamkos, Michael Bunting | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:41 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Matt Coronato | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 4:08 | NSH | Michael Bunting unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 12:49 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Mikael Backlund, Matt Coronato | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 19:31 | NSH | Nicolas Hague from Michael Bunting, Michael McCarron | 4–3 | 49% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 18:29 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.18 | +1.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:21 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.22 | +0.90 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:23 | 1 | 3 | +0.91 | +0.06 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:39 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 10:35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 12:23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:15 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:33 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:11 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:43 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 22:52 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 17:33 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:39 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 16:16 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:29 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:09 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:24 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:50 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | −1.30 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 21:16 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.06 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:06 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.14 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:49 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 15:26 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| John Beecher C | 3:06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 12:31 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 9:53 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 11:32 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 14:59 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:28 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:00 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:21 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 16:27 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:32 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:30 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:30 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 22:00 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 69:26 | −1.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.