COL beat CAR 5–3. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 3.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brock Nelson scored on the power play at 7:30 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 78%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:09 |  CAR | Sebastian AhoSH from Eric Robinson | 0–1 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 1:47 |  COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | CAR | Nikolaj EhlersPP from Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 7:50 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Sebastian Aho, K'Andre Miller | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 1:09 | COL | Brock NelsonPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 1:42 | COL | Jack Drury from Ross Colton | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 7:30 | COL | Brock NelsonPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 4–3 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 19:42 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 22:28 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.23 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jack Drury C | 15:20 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 18:52 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.27 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 18:21 | +0.32 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:04 | 1 | 3 | +0.24 | +0.24 | −0.38 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Sam Malinski D | 16:45 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Makar L | 8:40 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 11:31 | +0.02 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:35 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 22:44 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 11:43 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:26 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:42 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 21:01 | −0.14 | +0.34 | −0.44 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:25 | −0.32 | +0.15 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 16:49 | −0.39 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:32 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.25 | −0.89 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +0.81 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:42 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.23 | +0.75 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:28 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.11 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:44 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 12:49 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:33 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:51 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 11:03 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Nystrom D | 12:56 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:08 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 15:30 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:15 | −0.21 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:00 | −0.24 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:46 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 23:24 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:21 | −0.55 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:17 | −0.60 | −0.15 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:47 | −0.62 | −0.01 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 66:57 | +1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.