NYI beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Schaefer scored at 4:11 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joseph Woll allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:10 | NYI | Adam Pelech from Jonathan Drouin | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:30 |  TOR | Auston Matthews unassisted | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:19 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Bobby McMann, Max Domi | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 11:10 | NYI | Matthew Schaefer from Jonathan Drouin, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–2 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 12:12 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Nicolas Roy | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 17:15 | NYI | Emil Heineman from Mathew Barzal, Tony DeAngelo | 3–3 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 4:11 | NYI | Matthew Schaefer from Mathew Barzal, Emil Heineman | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 23:23 | 2 | +0.92 | −0.11 | +1.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:02 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.23 | +0.55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:40 | +0.25 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 11:58 | +0.23 | +0.30 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:55 | +0.15 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:44 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 12:26 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 19:37 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 22:07 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:21 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 18:07 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:05 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 20:17 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 28:42 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:30 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:20 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 64:11 | −1.43 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 23:14 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.03 | +1.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 24:04 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 21:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.10 | +0.79 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 19:45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:56 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 18:45 | −0.07 | +0.21 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 10:49 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:09 | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:12 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Maksim Shabanov R | 15:04 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:34 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 13:16 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:15 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole McWard D | 14:50 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 9:47 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:00 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 64:11 | −0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.