PHI beat EDM 5–2. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Denver Barkey scored at 7:16 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Calvin Pickard allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:16 |  PHI | Denver Barkey from Owen Tippett, Sean Couturier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:31 | PHI | Travis Sanheim unassisted | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 14:38 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Cam York, Matvei Michkov | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 16:08 |  EDM | Connor McDavid from Mattias Ekholm | 3–1 | 8% → 21% |
| P2 9:54 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P3 9:09 | PHI | Nick Seeler from Rodrigo Abols | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 18:50 | PHI | Owen TippettEN from Sean Couturier, Nick Seeler | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Seeler D | 18:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bobby Brink R | 14:36 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.14 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:20 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 14:11 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 13:57 | +0.08 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 15:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Emil Andrae D | 15:52 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 16:02 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 20:11 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:29 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 13:37 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 18:24 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 19:16 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:54 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:03 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 24:36 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rodrigo Abols C | 10:41 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 15:37 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 79:39 | +0.44 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:39 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.08 |
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:57 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:56 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 12:35 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 10:16 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:15 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinn Hutson R | 9:17 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 11:52 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 25:14 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:18 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 18:01 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 14:21 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:13 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:08 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:17 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:21 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.17 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 65:44 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.