MIN beat ANA 5–2. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Yakov Trenin scored at 14:45 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 70% to 87%. Lukas Dostal allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:39 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Joel Eriksson Ek, Quinn Hughes | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:10 | MIN | Danila Yurov from Yakov Trenin, Quinn Hughes | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 13:46 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Mason McTavish | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 14:45 | MIN | Yakov Trenin from Quinn Hughes, Joel Eriksson Ek | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 3:21 | MIN | Danila Yurov from Quinn Hughes, Mats Zuccarello | 4–1 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 15:02 | MIN | Nico Sturm from Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 17:27 | ANA | Troy Terry from Mikael Granlund | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov R | 14:21 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.03 | +1.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 11:09 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.02 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.13 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:56 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 20:30 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:16 | 4 | +0.01 | +0.29 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 10:43 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:43 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:48 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:25 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:56 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:53 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:42 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Faber D | 21:51 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +0.50 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 16:55 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.04 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:08 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:44 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:23 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:05 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 14:43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 14:47 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:52 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:20 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:41 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:26 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 13:49 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 10:05 | −0.32 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:04 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 19:44 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 69:00 | −1.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.