UTA beat NYI 7–2. Expected goals were close to even (UTA 2.9, NYI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 10:20 of the second, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 68%. David Rittich allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:36 |  UTA | Dylan Guenther from Barrett Hayton, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:35 | NYI | Calum Ritchie from Maksim Shabanov, Marshall Warren | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 10:20 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Lawson Crouse, Barrett Hayton | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 16:19 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz unassisted | 3–1 | 71% → 87% |
| P3 2:52 | UTA | Mikhail SergachevPP from Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther | 4–1 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 5:41 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 11:48 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Jonathan Drouin, Maksim Shabanov | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 13:54 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Lawson Crouse, Sean Durzi | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 16:55 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from JJ Peterka, Clayton Keller | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:23 | 3 | 1 | +2.44 | +0.04 | +2.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:07 | 2 | 1 | +1.53 | +0.11 | +1.37 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 20:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.09 | +0.47 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Michael Carcone L | 13:18 | +0.23 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 14:27 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:29 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 17:41 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:46 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:45 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:54 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:40 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:26 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:30 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:04 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 20:21 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 12:58 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:56 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.37 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.00 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:53 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.05 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marshall Warren D | 13:30 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:57 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:19 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:26 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maksim Shabanov R | 15:57 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:51 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 13:42 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 16:57 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 17:49 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 18:44 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:44 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:00 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:17 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:45 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 16:43 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 11:58 | −0.50 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 13:29 | −1.15 |
| David Rittich G | 45:21 | −3.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.