BOS beat EDM 6–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored on the power play at 7:28 of the first, moving BOS’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Connor Ingram allowed 3.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:28 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 18:13 | BOS | Casey Mittelstadt from Viktor Arvidsson, Hampus Lindholm | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P1 19:19 |  EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 2–1 | 20% → 35% |
| P2 7:05 | BOS | Hampus Lindholm from Fraser Minten, Viktor Arvidsson | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 18:19 | BOS | Jonathan Aspirot from David Pastrnak | 4–1 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 4:20 | BOS | Elias Lindholm from Morgan Geekie, Alex Steeves | 5–1 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 7:22 | EDM | Jack Roslovic from Darnell Nurse, Connor Ingram | 5–2 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 14:34 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 20:03 | 2 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.09 | +1.22 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:40 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.22 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:11 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.09 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 13:13 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:33 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 10:56 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 14:21 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 7:57 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:46 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 23:18 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:59 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:33 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 22:30 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:05 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 17:51 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +3.00 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.06 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:47 | +0.52 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:32 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:58 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:27 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Regula D | 10:56 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:06 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:02 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 15:27 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 11:17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 7:21 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 12:17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 7:31 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:55 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:21 | 1 | −0.94 | +0.07 | −1.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 24:35 | 1 | −1.28 | +0.24 | −1.64 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 59:34 | −3.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.