NJD beat CBJ 3–2. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Luke Hughes scored at 4:45 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Jake Allen saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:18 |  CBJ | Mason Marchment from Kirill Marchenko, Dysin Mayo | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 13:41 | CBJ | Charlie Coyle from Boone Jenner, Cole Sillinger | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 2:49 |  NJD | Nico HischierPP from Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes | 1–2 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 3:44 | NJD | Arseny Gritsyuk from Timo Meier, Jonas Siegenthaler | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 4:45 | NJD | Luke Hughes from Connor Brown, Ondrej Palat | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.19 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 21:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.76 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 14:07 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.20 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton White D | 11:32 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 6:54 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:41 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 6:53 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 25:18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:19 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 18:35 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:18 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 14:51 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:28 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:41 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:04 | −0.68 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:41 | +1.61 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:51 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.13 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 21:15 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.04 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:13 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 29:33 | +0.14 | +0.25 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:29 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:53 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 9:36 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:41 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:28 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 8:48 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 2:51 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 13:27 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 20:45 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:54 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 21:32 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.16 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 25:11 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.03 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 58:13 | −0.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.