NSH beat VGK 4–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Reid Schaefer scored at 16:21 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Akira Schmid allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:35 |  VGK | Mark StonePP from Pavel Dorofeyev, Noah Hanifin | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 9:06 | VGK | Ben Hutton from Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 11:20 |  NSH | Nick Perbix from Luke Evangelista | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 15:37 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Filip Forsberg, Luke Evangelista | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 16:21 | NSH | Reid Schaefer from Brady Skjei, Michael McCarron | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 11:52 | NSH | Michael BuntingPP from Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula | 4–2 | 70% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 14:21 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:32 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.03 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Reid Schaefer L | 10:33 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 19:45 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.11 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:08 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 9:22 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 8:24 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 20:31 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:17 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 17:00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:13 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 15:51 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 9:03 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:19 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:34 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 18:16 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 12:44 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 79:51 | +1.50 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 16:19 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.10 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 21:33 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 12:21 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:05 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 20:13 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 14:34 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 10:24 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 17:02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:36 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:39 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 9:45 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:16 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:36 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 29:59 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.08 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:30 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 14:46 | −0.69 | +0.08 | −0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 54:52 | −2.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.