VAN beat SEA 3–2 in a shootout. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 5:23 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 27% to 47%. Kevin Lankinen saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:50 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:20 | VAN | Linus Karlsson from Liam Ohgren | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:40 | SEA | Ryan Winterton from Jacob Melanson, Joey Daccord | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:23 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Evander Kane, Tom Willander | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ohgren L | 13:13 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 10:10 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 29:20 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:31 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.38 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 19:16 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 28:59 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 11:02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:14 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 9:03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 15:23 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:29 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 9:12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:17 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 16:37 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 22:36 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:53 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 16:15 | −0.65 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 65:00 | +3.44 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Winterton C | 10:01 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.15 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:05 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:41 | +0.47 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 20:20 | +0.24 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Melanson R | 8:30 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:28 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 21:06 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:52 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 10:53 | −0.17 | +0.15 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 22:55 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 26:27 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 20:33 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.32 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 12:26 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:45 | −0.42 | +0.11 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:10 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:57 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.09 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 22:37 | −1.15 | −0.09 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 66:18 | −0.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.