CBJ beat NYI 4–2. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kirill Marchenko scored at 16:41 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 51% to 91%. David Rittich saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:09 |  CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Mason Marchment, Denton Mateychuk | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:16 | NYI | Maksim Shabanov from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Duclair | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 13:24 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Ryan Pulock | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 15:27 | CBJ | Ivan Provorov from Denton Mateychuk, Sean Monahan | 2–2 | 13% → 51% |
| P3 16:41 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:54 | CBJ | Cole SillingerEN from Sean Monahan | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maksim Shabanov R | 14:27 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:25 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.25 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:12 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:51 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marshall Warren D | 11:23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:19 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 9:19 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 17:43 | −0.15 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:32 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 8:20 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:25 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:16 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 25:00 | −0.44 | −0.52 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:35 | −0.47 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 19:17 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:15 | −0.53 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 8:04 | −0.57 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:03 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.50 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 59:34 | +1.26 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 21:18 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.43 | +1.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:56 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.31 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 26:28 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.55 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:54 | +0.40 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.56 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:58 | +0.17 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 19:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.41 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 12:15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:13 | +0.00 | +0.31 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 8:24 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 7:17 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:53 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:20 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 8:11 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:14 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.20 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 7:41 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 22:35 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.47 | −0.94 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:20 | −0.54 | +0.12 | −0.67 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | +0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.