DET beat TOR 3–2 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Simon Edvinsson scored at 1:46 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:25 | TOR | Matthew KniesPP from Auston Matthews, John Tavares | 1–0 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 19:01 | DET | Moritz Seider from Lucas Raymond | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 4:53 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from John Tavares | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 5:16 | DET | Mason Appleton from Michael Rasmussen, Albert Johansson | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 1:46 | DET | Simon Edvinsson unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:54 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 17:28 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.24 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:23 | +0.19 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:47 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:10 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:52 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 13:59 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:43 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:37 | −0.17 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 18:59 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 22:01 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 9:53 | −0.22 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:49 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:48 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 19:12 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 10:44 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:24 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:35 | −0.46 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 61:46 | +0.02 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.24 | +0.35 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 25:57 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.48 | +0.31 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:21 | +0.49 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:51 | +0.41 | +0.48 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:50 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:06 | +0.18 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Leonard L | 7:31 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:28 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 8:25 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 8:42 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 15:47 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 19:58 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 13:55 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 17:29 | −0.08 | +0.34 | −0.36 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 17:07 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:36 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:47 | −0.50 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 61:46 | +0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.