COL beat VGK 6–5 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored on the power play at 18:03 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Carter Hart allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:43 |  VGK | Alexander Holtz from Noah Hanifin, Tomas Hertl | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 0:34 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Mitch Marner | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:19 | COL | Samuel Girard from Sam Malinski, Valeri Nichushkin | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 10:27 | COL | Martin Necas from Sam Malinski, Samuel Girard | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 11:36 | VGK | Ben Hutton from Alexander Holtz, Noah Hanifin | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:05 | VGK | Brett Howden from Reilly Smith, Jeremy Lauzon | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 3:52 | COL | Martin Necas from Nathan MacKinnon | 3–4 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 8:21 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Sam Malinski, Gabriel Landeskog | 4–4 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 16:00 | VGK | Colton Sissons from Keegan Kolesar, Kaedan Korczak | 4–5 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 18:03 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 21:09 | 2 | +2.65 | +0.32 | +1.54 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:28 | 1 | 2 | +1.15 | +0.38 | −0.38 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +1.01 |
| Samuel Girard D | 16:41 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.11 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:36 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.28 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 25:39 | +0.39 | +0.60 | −0.28 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 23:52 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.30 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 24:39 | +0.21 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 19:11 | 3 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:40 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:04 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 5:34 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 8:14 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:01 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 17:53 | −0.22 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:37 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 11:38 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:51 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:03 | 1 | −0.95 | +0.29 | −0.77 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:10 | −1.64 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 20:51 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 11:37 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.14 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:11 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.17 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 20:44 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.39 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.79 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:21 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:21 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 14:13 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:50 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 23:13 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 21:31 | −0.31 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 11:14 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 13:47 | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 26:01 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 12:38 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:43 | −0.56 | +0.17 | −0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 20:21 | −0.63 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 65:00 | −1.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.