MIN beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.6, WPG 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored at 0:39 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:36 |  WPG | Josh Morrissey from Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:29 |  MIN | Matt Boldy from Jared Spurgeon, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 7:33 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Mats Zuccarello, Danila Yurov | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:56 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| P2 19:57 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Jonathan Toews | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 19:38 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 0:39 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 20:27 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.24 | +1.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.04 | +0.50 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.11 | +0.50 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 8:50 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:13 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 13:26 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brock Faber D | 21:34 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:37 | 3 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:58 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:06 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 13:40 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:45 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:13 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:59 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:04 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:59 | −0.25 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:48 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 58:32 | −0.42 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 21:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.08 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.16 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 15:29 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Toews C | 12:10 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 20:05 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:52 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 10:58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:41 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 12:35 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 22:16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 17:16 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:09 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 10:51 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:10 | −0.32 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 20:48 | 2 | −0.38 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:05 | −1.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.