BUF beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bowen Byram scored at 0:31 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 46% to 100%. Alex Lyon saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:22 |  BUF | Bowen Byram from Jordan Greenway, Josh Dunne | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 17:13 |  OTT | Ridly Greig from Claude Giroux | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:11 | BUF | Noah Ostlund from Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:27 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| OT 0:31 | BUF | Bowen Byram from Ryan McLeod, Mattias Samuelsson | 3–2 | 46% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 24:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | −0.10 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Noah Ostlund C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.18 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Dunne C | 13:13 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 16:11 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 8:38 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 14:00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:48 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:00 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 12:21 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:36 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 16:47 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:39 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Josh Doan R | 13:28 | −0.34 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 12:39 | −0.48 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 25:10 | −0.49 | −0.31 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:01 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Benson L | 12:24 | −0.71 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:31 | +1.27 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 21:41 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.28 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 15:11 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| David Perron L | 15:21 | +0.35 | +0.46 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:32 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.44 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:03 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:25 | +0.19 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:47 | +0.17 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:04 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 19:33 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 16:10 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:42 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.50 | −0.68 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 8:27 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:40 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 7:46 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:23 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 15:17 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:42 | −0.79 | +0.10 | −0.90 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:31 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.