UTA beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 0:13 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:20 |  UTA | Lawson Crouse from Dylan Guenther, Barrett Hayton | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:31 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 3:01 | UTA | Alexander Kerfoot from Sean Durzi, Mikhail Sergachev | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 11:18 |  WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi | 1–3 | 4% → 11% |
| P3 15:23 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele | 2–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 15:48 | WPG | Morgan Barron from Tanner Pearson | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 0:13 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 23:03 | 2 | +1.20 | −0.03 | +1.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 13:09 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 19:16 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:48 | 2 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 20:50 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 13:23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 9:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 11:52 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:21 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:26 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:44 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 12:48 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 11:12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:34 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 22:37 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:13 | −1.70 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:10 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.13 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.08 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.68 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:55 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:19 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:45 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:30 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:12 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:30 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:38 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:57 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:29 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 11:45 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:41 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:29 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:19 | 2 | −0.37 | +0.18 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:13 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.