DET beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Moritz Seider scored at 4:36 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Talbot saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:17 | WSH | Ethen Frank from Dylan Strome | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 8:37 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Emmitt Finnie | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:44 | DET | John Leonard from Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 10:22 | WSH | Ethen Frank from John Carlson, Dylan Strome | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 4:36 | DET | Moritz Seider from Andrew Copp, Emmitt Finnie | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethen Frank R | 15:44 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.21 | +1.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 21:10 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:52 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:07 | +0.17 | +0.25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 19:45 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 7:23 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:52 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 21:00 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:53 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 8:27 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:41 | −0.15 | +0.26 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:28 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 20:36 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 6:36 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:08 | −0.36 | +0.20 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 21:14 | −0.37 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 17:19 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 64:21 | +0.08 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider D | 26:44 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.16 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Leonard L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:13 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.14 | +0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 19:14 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:19 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:55 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:08 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 25:54 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 14:26 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 16:02 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:23 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:23 | −0.30 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 13:07 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:39 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 15:50 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:51 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.56 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 8:34 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:36 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.