NSH beat TOR 5–3. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Luke Evangelista scored at 9:18 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 |  TOR | Nicolas Roy from Bobby McMann, Nicholas Robertson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 4:56 | NSH | Erik HaulaPP from Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 11:57 | TOR | John Tavares from Matias Maccelli, Jake McCabe | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 19:26 | NSH | Adam Wilsby from Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 9:18 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Brady Skjei | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 18:25 | NSH | Steven StamkosEN from Filip Forsberg | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:06 | TOR | Bobby McMannPP from Nicholas Robertson, Easton Cowan | 3–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:51 | NSH | Cole SmithEN from Brady Skjei, Michael McCarron | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McMann C | 11:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.08 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Tavares C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.09 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:54 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.24 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:58 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 12:06 | +0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 16:27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 22:22 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:15 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 14:07 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:56 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 19:19 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:57 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:35 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:19 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:36 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 18:28 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 18:23 | −0.75 | −0.21 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 58:23 | +0.13 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:01 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.23 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:48 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.19 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:28 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:05 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 20:17 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:25 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 10:44 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 10:34 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:39 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:16 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:45 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 20:43 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:07 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:46 | −0.17 | +0.21 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 11:03 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.06 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:59 | −0.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.