MTL beat PIT 4–0. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Juraj Slafkovský scored on the power play at 16:41 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Jacob Fowler saved 3.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:41 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 18:49 | MTL | Owen Beck from Brendan Gallagher, Lane Hutson | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 12:14 | MTL | Josh AndersonSH from Oliver Kapanen | 0–3 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 17:02 | MTL | Josh AndersonEN unassisted | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutger McGroarty R | 12:32 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:06 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:32 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 14:28 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:29 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 21:48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 14:40 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 17:08 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 17:52 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 12:05 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:29 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:09 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:20 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 21:02 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:44 | −0.50 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:48 | −0.89 | +0.07 | −0.92 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 55:38 | −1.11 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Beck C | 13:18 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.05 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:12 | 2 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 15:25 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:22 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 1:57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:13 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:48 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:58 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 16:26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Adam Engstrom D | 11:12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:50 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:53 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 18:10 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 23:50 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:13 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:19 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 60:00 | +3.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.