NYR beat PHI 5–4 in a shootout. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mika Zibanejad scored on the power play at 17:26 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 9% to 51%. Samuel Ersson allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:24 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Mika Zibanejad | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:42 | PHI | Travis SanheimPP from Denver Barkey, Matvei Michkov | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:05 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Denver Barkey, Cam York | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 10:18 | PHI | Trevor ZegrasPP from Jamie Drysdale, Noah Cates | 3–1 | 69% → 84% |
| P2 12:23 | NYR | Artemi Panarin unassisted | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 14:36 | PHI | Rodrigo AbolsSH from Travis Sanheim | 4–2 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 9:13 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from J.T. Miller, Gabe Perreault | 4–3 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 17:26 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Scott Morrow, Will Cuylle | 4–4 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 17:01 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.11 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Rodrigo Abols C | 11:57 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.09 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Zegras C | 22:58 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.32 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:04 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 22:57 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 19:09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 15:18 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 21:40 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 19:58 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 11:27 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:15 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 15:14 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:19 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:08 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:05 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:31 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.11 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:29 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 65:00 | −2.65 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:31 | 2 | +1.79 | −0.10 | +1.37 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 25:38 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.41 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.15 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 |
| Brennan Othmann L | 4:51 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 18:44 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 15:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 17:28 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 4:56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 25:12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:37 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 15:26 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 28:56 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:24 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 8:28 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 16:03 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:46 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Scott Morrow D | 20:12 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.08 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 64:59 | −0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.