DAL beat ANA 8–3. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Roope Hintz scored at 4:42 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Petr Mrazek allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:37 |  DAL | Oskar BäckSH from Radek Faksa | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 3:32 |  ANA | Ryan Poehling from Radko Gudas, Ross Johnston | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 4:42 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Jason Robertson, Mavrik Bourque | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:41 | DAL | Sam Steel from Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 14:19 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Mikko Rantanen | 4–1 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 11:10 | DAL | Jason RobertsonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen | 5–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 15:10 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Roope Hintz | 6–1 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 18:30 | DAL | Adam Erne from Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley | 7–1 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 1:01 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Mason McTavish, Chris Kreider | 7–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 1:42 | DAL | Ilya Lyubushkin from Justin Hryckowian, Esa Lindell | 8–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:22 | ANA | Mikael Granlund from Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry | 8–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 15:18 | 2 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.01 | +0.71 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oskar Bäck C | 15:33 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 15:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Thomas Harley D | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.05 | +0.28 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:50 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.06 | +0.46 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 16:03 | 2 | +0.33 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 22:05 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:43 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:52 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Erne L | 11:25 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:43 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 12:49 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 14:24 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 16:00 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | −0.55 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.08 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.07 | +0.43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 21:01 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 18:32 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 19:51 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:43 | +0.01 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 18:47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 18:06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 13:57 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:41 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:12 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:28 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 10:12 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 45:41 | −1.98 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 14:19 | −3.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.