NJD beat UTA 2–1. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Stefan Noesen scored on the power play at 4:20 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 49% to 75%. Jacob Markstrom saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:35 |  UTA | Daniil ButPP from Sean Durzi | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 11:21 |  NJD | Connor Brown from Nico Hischier | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 4:20 | NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Nico Hischier, Luke Hughes | 2–1 | 49% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Brown R | 22:16 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.11 | +0.75 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:25 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:43 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:29 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:01 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:33 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton White D | 12:57 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Xavier Parent C | 5:37 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 17:23 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:02 | −0.23 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 11:29 | −0.24 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 15:53 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Angus Crookshank C | 6:37 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 22:08 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.19 | −0.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:07 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:01 | −0.35 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:06 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:52 | −0.85 | −0.22 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:35 | +2.92 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil But L | 14:06 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:34 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 12:05 | +0.23 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:08 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 14:21 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:22 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 8:14 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:18 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:40 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:12 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 18:59 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:17 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:33 | −0.17 | +0.19 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.26 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:55 | −0.28 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:12 | −0.35 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 15:06 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:08 | −0.52 | +0.16 | −0.65 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:41 | +0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.