FLA beat CAR 4–3 in a shootout. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored on the power play at 19:18 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 5% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:53 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Eric Robinson, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 1:27 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 7:34 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis | 3–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 10:16 |  FLA | Brad Marchand from Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe | 3–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 17:35 | FLA | Sam BennettPP from Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart | 3–2 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 19:18 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Brad Marchand, Evan Rodrigues | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:40 | 2 | +0.98 | +0.03 | +1.52 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.32 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 18:12 | +0.83 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.26 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 10:32 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:16 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 18:36 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 17:40 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:34 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 12:21 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:15 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:51 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:11 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:46 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:05 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 13:53 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:59 | 2 | −0.60 | +0.13 | −0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:54 | 2 | −0.89 | −0.13 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 65:00 | +0.28 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:51 | 1 | 1 | +1.44 | +0.03 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.79 |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 19:47 | 2 | +0.86 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +1.01 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 23:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 14:44 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:24 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 30:47 | +0.07 | +0.25 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 11:37 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 23:13 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 7:10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 11:44 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 23:24 | 1 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.36 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Noah Gregor L | 6:44 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:34 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 8:32 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 14:51 | −0.48 | +0.13 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:49 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:41 | −0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.