DAL beat SJS 5–3. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Roope Hintz scored at 12:25 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:25 |  DAL | Roope Hintz from Mikko Rantanen, Esa Lindell | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:38 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:43 | SJS | Shakir Mukhamadullin from Ty Dellandrea | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 8:40 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz | 3–1 | 69% → 84% |
| P2 16:44 | SJS | Collin Graf from Macklin Celebrini | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P2 19:17 | DAL | Justin Hryckowian unassisted | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 4:32 | SJS | Collin Graf from Igor Chernyshov, Macklin Celebrini | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 18:42 | DAL | Jamie BennEN unassisted | 5–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:43 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.13 | +1.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 14:07 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.05 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 14:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:41 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:58 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 25:46 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Petrovic D | 14:06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:02 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 17:54 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 22:00 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:57 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 17:43 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 13:44 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 15:34 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 14:30 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 15:43 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:09 | −0.43 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | +1.01 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Graf R | 19:29 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.15 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 11:53 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.07 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 9:56 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:40 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 14:02 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 26:54 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:46 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:59 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 8:52 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:49 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:36 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 17:31 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 13:31 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:46 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ethan Cardwell R | 11:22 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 18:39 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.06 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Eklund L | 20:31 | −0.46 | +0.27 | −0.73 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 24:04 | 2 | −0.51 | +0.37 | −0.87 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 58:04 | −1.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.