NYR beat STL 2–1 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: J.T. Miller scored at 2:21 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:58 |  STL | Jonatan Berggren from Dalibor Dvorsky | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:02 |  NYR | Gabe PerreaultPP from Will Cuylle, Noah Laba | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| OT 2:21 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Vincent Trocheck, Vladislav Gavrikov | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 20:57 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.35 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 13:09 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Morrow D | 17:06 | +0.33 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 17:58 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:17 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 8:02 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 26:36 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 13:29 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 24:02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 17:52 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 10:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:09 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 11:41 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:49 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.42 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:36 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brennan Othmann L | 7:14 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:26 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:53 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 62:21 | +1.57 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Berggren R | 17:25 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.14 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:22 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Luff R | 7:20 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:35 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 14:32 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:19 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 16:11 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 19:53 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:56 | −0.15 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 15:40 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pius Suter C | 17:38 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:32 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Otto Stenberg C | 15:12 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:27 | −0.38 | +0.24 | −0.74 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:12 | −0.46 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 19:54 | −0.46 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:07 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.38 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:05 | −0.48 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 63:00 | +1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.