MIN beat CBJ 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.4, CBJ 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek scored at 11:50 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:20 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Charlie Coyle, Cole Sillinger | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 13:30 |  MIN | Ryan HartmanPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:15 | MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Yakov Trenin, Danila Yurov | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:39 | CBJ | Zach Werenski unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 11:50 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Yakov Trenin, Matt Boldy | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 18:08 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN from Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | 4–2 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:46 | MIN | Matt BoldyEN from Kirill Kaprizov | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.11 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:33 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Yakov Trenin C | 17:32 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Jiricek D | 9:04 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Lambos D | 10:16 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:56 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:32 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 16:12 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Kiersted D | 17:37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 32:02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 7:02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:39 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:25 | 1 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brock Faber D | 30:57 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:44 | 1 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nico Sturm C | 10:02 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 8:10 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 28:30 | 2 | +1.85 | +0.28 | +1.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 24:20 | +0.25 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:49 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 15:58 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:25 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 10:24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 8:46 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:57 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:00 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:50 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Damon Severson D | 17:16 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 16:05 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:13 | −0.32 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 9:40 | −0.43 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 19:38 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 8:50 | −0.46 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 59:21 | −0.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.