MTL beat CHI 4–1. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zachary Bolduc scored at 0:20 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 77%. Spencer Knight saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:27 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Matt Grzelcyk, Andre Burakovsky | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:23 |  MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P3 0:20 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 10:00 | MTL | Noah Dobson from Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson | 1–3 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 16:29 | MTL | Nick SuzukiEN unassisted | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Nazar C | 16:25 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 15:07 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 17:42 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Moore C | 11:39 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 12:17 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:34 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 13:32 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 21:58 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 18:07 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:05 | −0.25 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:47 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:24 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 16:40 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:57 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 8:58 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 19:01 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:12 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:23 | +1.01 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:23 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.04 | +1.53 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 22:32 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 24:58 | +0.35 | +0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:19 | 3 | +0.32 | +0.43 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:23 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.42 | −0.28 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:27 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.13 | ||
| Owen Beck C | 11:24 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 10:20 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.28 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jayden Struble D | 10:26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:39 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Engstrom D | 16:13 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:16 | −0.20 | +0.33 | −0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 16:16 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.36 | −0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 15:34 | −0.27 | +0.12 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:06 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:17 | −0.31 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.