EDM beat BOS 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.4, BOS 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Quinn Hutson scored at 14:38 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Calvin Pickard saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:38 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P1 16:27 |  BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 14:38 | EDM | Quinn Hutson from Max Jones | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 1:41 | EDM | Connor McDavidSH from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.09 | +0.51 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.02 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.74 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Quinn Hutson R | 6:26 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:33 | +0.31 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:40 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 11:22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:31 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 11:41 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 13:13 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:17 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:09 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 19:09 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:04 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 15:07 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:23 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:50 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.13 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:14 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 5:48 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 23:52 | +1.30 |
| Tristan Jarry G | 36:08 | −0.05 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.07 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 13:47 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 22:07 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 12:28 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 25:10 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:26 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:32 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:42 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:45 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 9:44 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 20:14 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 13:16 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 15:13 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 21:10 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:19 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:21 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:35 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.