CBJ beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.5, CBJ 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adam Fantilli scored at 3:32 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:21 |  CBJ | Zach Werenski from Boone Jenner, Egor Chinakhov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:35 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 3:59 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Brendan Gaunce, Kent Johnson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:18 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Ivan Provorov | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 5:29 | ANA | Mikael Granlund from Frank Vatrano | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P3 16:44 | ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Ryan Poehling, Mikael Granlund | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 3:32 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 12:06 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.20 | +0.70 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 31:23 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Ross Johnston L | 12:00 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 15:28 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:51 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:18 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 12:28 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:18 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 12:01 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 14:07 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:31 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.17 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:30 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:37 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:36 | −0.39 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:26 | −0.42 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 11:57 | −0.56 | −0.07 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 22:45 | −0.81 | −0.27 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 63:30 | −0.74 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 29:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.68 | +0.39 | +1.46 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 15:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.16 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fantilli C | 20:49 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.14 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:42 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.26 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 22:28 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:38 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:44 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 13:02 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 13:42 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 10:38 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 10:18 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:08 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:19 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 19:43 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:57 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 11:59 | −0.31 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:14 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:20 | −0.55 | +0.09 | −0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 63:01 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.