DET beat NYI 3–2. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat scored on the power play at 17:43 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 93%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:27 |  NYI | Emil Heineman from Mathew Barzal, Jonathan Drouin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P3 2:03 | DET | Axel Sandin-Pellikka from Lucas Raymond | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 3:55 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond | 1–2 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 11:26 | NYI | Scott Mayfield from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 17:43 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond | 2–3 | 52% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:14 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.13 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 16:57 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.22 | +0.67 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:58 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:43 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 11:13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:45 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Mitchell D | 15:04 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:47 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:26 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 18:59 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:42 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 11:28 | −0.27 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:00 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maksim Shabanov R | 16:15 | −0.41 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 20:47 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.35 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 25:56 | −0.66 | −0.34 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 58:06 | −0.46 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:50 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.20 | +1.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 17:36 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.09 | +0.84 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 24:23 | 2 | +0.62 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:55 | +0.34 | +0.42 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 17:25 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:51 | 3 | +0.20 | +0.40 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elmer Soderblom L | 10:43 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:45 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 25:05 | +0.06 | +0.50 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Danielson C | 10:06 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:04 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 14:24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 15:55 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 16:51 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 10:22 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:06 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 13:02 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:37 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:00 | −0.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.