NSH beat STL 5–2. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Michael Bunting scored at 1:23 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:06 | STL | Dalibor Dvorsky from Hugh McGing, Justin Faulk | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 1:23 | NSH | Michael Bunting from Nick Perbix, Erik Haula | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:31 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi | 3–1 | 68% → 82% |
| P2 18:45 | NSH | Reid Schaefer from Roman Josi | 4–1 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 8:29 | STL | Dalibor DvorskyPP from Jake Neighbours, Pavel Buchnevich | 4–2 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 16:09 | NSH | Filip ForsbergEN from Ryan O'Reilly | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:20 | 3 | +1.67 | +0.06 | +1.58 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:51 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.05 | +0.93 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:30 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:25 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 14:27 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 18:06 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:34 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:44 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:31 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 17:23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:45 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:41 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:19 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:18 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:44 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | −0.15 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 17:07 | 2 | +1.21 | −0.06 | +1.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:44 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 23:33 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Luff R | 13:00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 19:45 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 13:41 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 17:29 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:28 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:03 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 18:02 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 15:27 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 12:24 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:32 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Hugh McGing L | 13:54 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pius Suter C | 17:36 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 16:26 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:24 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:39 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.