OTT beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk scored at 2:11 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:47 |  OTT | Nick Cousins from Kurtis MacDermid, Tim Stützle | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 15:37 |  WPG | Neal Pionk from Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:35 | WPG | Logan Stanley from Morgan Barron, Gabriel Vilardi | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 18:06 | OTT | Jake SandersonPP from Tim Stützle | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 2:11 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sanderson D | 29:14 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.27 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Cousins C | 9:04 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.04 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:06 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.07 | +0.34 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:16 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 14:25 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 14:29 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:16 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 16:39 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:02 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 19:15 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 13:30 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:17 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 5:23 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:49 | −0.40 | +0.14 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 9:29 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:46 | 3 | −0.81 | +0.03 | −0.99 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 61:28 | +0.44 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Pionk D | 24:42 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.34 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 13:14 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 22:24 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:31 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 10:51 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 12:12 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 12:58 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 13:23 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:52 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:56 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:38 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 10:16 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:41 | −0.20 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:19 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 20:41 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.11 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:30 | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:45 | −0.65 | −0.18 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 62:11 | +0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.