ANA beat NYR 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.7, NYR 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cutter Gauthier scored on the power play at 5:51 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 49% to 76%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:18 |  ANA | Jackson LaCombeSH from Ryan Poehling, Jacob Trouba | 1–0 | 46% → 67% |
| P2 16:18 | NYR | Matthew Robertson from Artemi Panarin, Alexis Lafrenière | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 5:51 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Beckett Sennecke, Olen Zellweger | 2–1 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 19:38 | ANA | Cutter GauthierEN from Leo Carlsson, Alex Killorn | 3–1 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:57 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Ryan Poehling, Ross Johnston | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:05 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:34 | 2 | +0.56 | +0.07 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 28:23 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.09 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:49 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 17:55 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 9:16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 10:59 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:24 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 13:21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:49 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:40 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 14:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 11:37 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.09 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:29 | −0.20 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 11:27 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:23 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:48 | +1.69 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Robertson D | 17:27 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 13:12 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:12 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 11:29 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 17:43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Berard L | 10:24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 22:10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:08 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 9:01 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 11:27 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:12 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:55 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 14:13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 14:49 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 17:49 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:48 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:02 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.42 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 21:46 | −0.60 | −0.09 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:13 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.