UTA beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 0:42 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:48 | PIT | Justin Brazeau from Ben Kindel, Rutger McGroarty | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:21 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Rickard Rakell | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 5:40 | PIT | Ben Kindel from Ryan Shea, Kris Letang | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P3 1:07 |  UTA | Nate Schmidt from Nick Schmaltz, JJ Peterka | 1–3 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 1:22 | UTA | Michael Carcone unassisted | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 5:35 | UTA | Sean Durzi from Kailer Yamamoto, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–3 | 20% → 49% |
| P3 7:06 | UTA | Michael CarconePP from Barrett Hayton, Daniil But | 4–3 | 49% → 77% |
| P3 14:06 | PIT | Justin Brazeau from Erik Karlsson, Ben Kindel | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 0:42 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from John Marino | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 12:20 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.03 | +1.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 17:59 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:44 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.08 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 20:16 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.06 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 11:48 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:32 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 22:57 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 10:30 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:29 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 23:03 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:26 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 9:18 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil But L | 10:45 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:24 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:24 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:51 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.04 | −1.03 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 21:55 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.03 | −0.68 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:16 | −2.51 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Brazeau R | 14:12 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.05 | +1.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:08 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 16:23 | 1 | 2 | +0.34 | −0.07 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:58 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:13 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 19:01 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 24:27 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:31 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 13:43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rutger McGroarty R | 14:11 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:45 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 6:46 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:27 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 18:02 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:11 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 10:31 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:35 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:07 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov G | 60:06 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.