VGK beat CBJ 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.1, CBJ 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brayden McNabb scored at 13:13 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Jet Greaves allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:02 | CBJ | Charlie Coyle from Zach Werenski, Cole Sillinger | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:41 |  VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 4:49 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Dante Fabbro, Kent Johnson | 1–2 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 5:52 | VGK | Ben Hutton from Mitch Marner, Kaedan Korczak | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 13:13 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 16:46 | 3 | +1.14 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 13:39 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 11:04 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:30 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:24 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.21 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:24 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:43 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:36 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 18:14 | +0.04 | +0.29 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:45 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:09 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 14:13 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 13:18 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:26 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 13:39 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 13:10 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:00 | +0.90 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Chinakhov R | 9:53 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:46 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 13:54 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:44 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:53 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 9:55 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 14:04 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 20:18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:59 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:35 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:24 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.33 | +0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:58 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:42 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 17:26 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 11:12 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:38 | −0.34 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:32 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 58:52 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.