EDM beat TOR 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 3.3, TOR 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Darnell Nurse scored at 19:29 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Dennis Hildeby allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:25 |  EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:03 | TOR | Easton Cowan from Scott Laughton, Steven Lorentz | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 4:54 | TOR | Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Matthew Knies, Max Domi | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:29 | EDM | Connor McDavid unassisted | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 19:29 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 1:21 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Leon Draisaitl, Alec Regula | 4–2 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 1:55 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Leon Draisaitl, Matt Savoie | 5–2 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 9:28 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 6–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:12 | TOR | Steven Lorentz from Jake McCabe, Troy Stecher | 6–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 19:42 | 2 | 1 | +1.63 | +0.02 | +1.50 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:01 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.04 | +1.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:50 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:04 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:54 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 15:10 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:32 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:34 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Regula D | 21:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 17:12 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:22 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 15:11 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 13:39 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 8:18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:08 | 3 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:48 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | −0.02 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Cowan R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:32 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:37 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 17:33 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:25 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 13:46 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 15:44 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 18:33 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 14:49 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:37 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:47 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:29 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:23 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.16 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.30 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| John Tavares C | 16:55 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:59 | −0.55 | −0.08 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Artur Akhtyamov G | 10:32 | +0.22 |
| Dennis Hildeby G | 49:28 | −2.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.