BUF beat VAN 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zach Benson scored on the power play at 14:46 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 70%. Thatcher Demko allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:36 |  BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:49 |  VAN | Kiefer SherwoodPP from Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:15 | VAN | Max Sasson from Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:12 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:46 | BUF | Zach BensonPP from Josh Doan, Tage Thompson | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson L | 16:13 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.04 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Isak Rosen R | 8:42 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 18:43 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 5:02 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 18:45 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 16:45 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:46 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 6:21 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:32 | −0.17 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Kuntar C | 5:12 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 21:27 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 20:52 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 20:47 | −0.25 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:01 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:48 | −0.42 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:39 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:56 | +1.18 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 19:24 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Sasson C | 14:46 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.26 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 13:11 | +0.32 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:06 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:03 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Willander D | 12:04 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:25 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 20:41 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 13:11 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 11:40 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 10:51 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:20 | −0.09 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:29 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 20:26 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:16 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.15 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:33 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:56 | −0.32 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 57:54 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.