NSH beat STL 7–2. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Steven Stamkos scored at 8:22 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Jordan Binnington allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:22 |  NSH | Steven Stamkos from Matthew Wood, Fedor Svechkov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:19 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Roman Josi, Nick Perbix | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 4:17 |  STL | Hugh McGing from Robby Fabbri, Philip Broberg | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 8:38 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Luke Evangelista | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 11:43 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Luke Evangelista, Brady Skjei | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 12:06 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Nick Blankenburg, Fedor Svechkov | 1–5 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 13:56 | STL | Robert Thomas from Philip Broberg, Jake Neighbours | 2–5 | 0% → 3% |
| P2 15:33 | NSH | Steven Stamkos from Matthew Wood, Roman Josi | 2–6 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 7:36 | NSH | Michael BuntingPP from Luke Evangelista, Nick Blankenburg | 2–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 19:02 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Hugh McGing L | 9:48 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:37 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:00 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 14:28 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:44 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C | 9:31 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 25:26 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 15:28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 16:06 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 15:07 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 18:26 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 20:57 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:38 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 15:26 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 16:58 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:25 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 20:00 | −0.10 |
| Jordan Binnington G | 40:00 | −2.53 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:42 | 4 | +2.61 | +0.11 | +2.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:52 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.08 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 14:27 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.04 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:25 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 15:49 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:18 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:05 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 16:46 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 20:54 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 20:14 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:08 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 11:53 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:08 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 13:28 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:41 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:32 | 3 | −0.59 | −0.02 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:46 | +0.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.