CAR beat WSH 3–2 in a shootout. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored on the power play at 17:45 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Brandon Bussi saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:00 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Alex Ovechkin, Rasmus Sandin | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 13:43 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 11:32 | WSH | Nic Dowd from Rasmus Sandin, Connor McMichael | 1–2 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 17:45 | CAR | Logan StankovenPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Jalen Chatfield | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.17 | +0.36 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:30 | +0.46 | +0.17 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 20:24 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Sean Walker D | 22:42 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:46 | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 12:05 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:04 | +0.09 | +0.36 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:37 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:26 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:41 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:57 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:51 | −0.09 | +0.25 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.11 | ||
| William Carrier L | 13:21 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:56 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 11:31 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:19 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:06 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 64:56 | +1.97 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 18:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.17 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:33 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.22 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:21 | +0.18 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:54 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 4:58 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 14:43 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 7:55 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:27 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 23:29 | −0.16 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:31 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 22:05 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 20:47 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 21:58 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 6:09 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.33 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 19:38 | −0.62 | −0.05 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 20:01 | −0.65 | +0.13 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.29 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:52 | −0.71 | −0.11 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 65:00 | +1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.