MTL beat PIT 4–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexandre Texier scored at 2:54 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Jacob Fowler saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:54 | MTL | Alexandre Texier unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 4:37 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 10:18 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P3 0:44 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak | 3–1 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 0:59 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Juraj Slafkovský, Ivan Demidov | 4–1 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 15:07 | PIT | Erik KarlssonPP from Kris Letang, Bryan Rust | 4–2 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:32 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 9:57 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 18:12 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 19:03 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 13:20 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:06 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Engstrom D | 11:30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:29 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 22:15 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 21:38 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:20 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:47 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:40 | −0.36 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Davidson C | 5:44 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Beck C | 9:08 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 16:26 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.54 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:02 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.14 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 59:51 | +2.50 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:22 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.12 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 25:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Shea D | 16:25 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rutger McGroarty R | 10:24 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:06 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 12:59 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:59 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 10:11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 13:25 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 15:24 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 10:10 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:29 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.92 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.18 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 11:53 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:36 | −0.48 | +0.12 | −0.57 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 21:24 | −0.63 | +0.14 | −0.92 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 56:00 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.