FLA beat UTA 4–3. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anton Lundell scored at 19:08 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:23 |  UTA | Dylan Guenther from John Marino | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:17 |  FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:40 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Evan Rodrigues, Niko Mikkola | 2–1 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 3:24 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Carter Verhaeghe | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 3:37 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Lawson Crouse, John Marino | 3–2 | 18% → 34% |
| P2 14:37 | UTA | Jack McBain from Sean Durzi, Ian Cole | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 19:08 | FLA | Anton Lundell from Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Reinhart | 4–3 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett C | 17:52 | 2 | 1 | +1.52 | +0.09 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anton Lundell C | 19:58 | 1 | +1.26 | +0.58 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 24:29 | +0.56 | +0.66 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:59 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.37 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 12:27 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 6:44 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 8:03 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 6:44 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 13:20 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 19:13 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.58 | −0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 13:12 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 16:55 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.61 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 15:26 | −0.36 | +0.53 | −0.88 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:15 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +0.77 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:32 | 2 | +1.40 | +0.00 | +1.42 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 12:39 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Daniil But L | 10:41 | +0.29 | +0.30 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 8:11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:22 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 13:01 | −0.07 | +0.37 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maveric Lamoureux D | 12:46 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:09 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 20:15 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:58 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:02 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:33 | −0.39 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:24 | −0.40 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 20:37 | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:20 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:58 | −0.51 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:09 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:59 | −1.02 | +0.12 | −1.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 59:24 | +0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.