BOS beat STL 5–2. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Kastelic scored at 8:01 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:27 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 12:48 | BOS | Fraser Minten from Marat Khusnutdinov, David Pastrnak | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 14:34 | BOS | Mark Kastelic from Sean Kuraly, Victor Soderstrom | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 4:51 | STL | Robert Thomas from Pavel Buchnevich | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 8:01 | BOS | Mark Kastelic from Sean Kuraly, Nikita Zadorov | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 11:33 | BOS | Fraser Minten from David Pastrnak, Andrew Peeke | 4–2 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 18:19 | BOS | Pavel ZachaEN from Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kastelic C | 14:54 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.13 | +1.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 15:51 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.13 | +1.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:54 | +0.34 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 24:08 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:00 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 13:03 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 13:44 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:00 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 18:31 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 17:52 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 13:13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 15:36 | 3 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 14:29 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:16 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.79 | +0.10 | −0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +0.29 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 20:56 | 2 | +1.78 | −0.07 | +1.51 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 17:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 12:13 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:55 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:31 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:50 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 20:29 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:07 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C | 10:35 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Luff R | 7:44 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:05 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:58 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 20:32 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:11 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 9:49 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 17:29 | −0.57 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 58:00 | −1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.