ANA beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 5.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Beckett Sennecke scored at 19:59 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 1% to 46%. Ville Husso saved 3.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:49 |  PIT | Noel Acciari from Connor Dewar | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:19 |  ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:10 | ANA | Troy Terry unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 19:41 | PIT | Tommy Novak from Erik Karlsson, Ryan Shea | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 16:05 | PIT | Anthony ManthaPP from Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 52% → 90% |
| P3 19:59 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke unassisted | 3–3 | 1% → 46% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 15:39 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.24 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:44 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.63 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 13:32 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 18:43 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:56 | 1 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.43 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Drew Helleson D | 18:37 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 8:31 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 9:48 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:36 | −0.18 | −0.56 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 12:06 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 13:29 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:19 | −0.40 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:39 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:39 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:32 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:41 | −0.58 | −0.44 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 16:41 | −0.81 | −0.20 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 62:47 | +3.91 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari C | 11:22 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:11 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.05 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:54 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.29 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 18:42 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.50 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 13:54 | +0.29 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:08 | +0.22 | +0.65 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 13:45 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:58 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 19:23 | −0.09 | +0.75 | −0.77 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 13:46 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rutger McGroarty R | 12:00 | −0.19 | +0.29 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:38 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:07 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.23 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 22:33 | −0.43 | +0.47 | −0.88 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 15:46 | −0.49 | +0.31 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 64:48 | −0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.