NYI beat VGK 5–4 in a shootout. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Dorofeyev scored on the power play at 19:46 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 3% to 49%. Ilya Sorokin saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:02 |  VGK | Noah Hanifin from Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:01 | VGK | Mitch Marner from Kaedan Korczak, Mark Stone | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 19:33 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Ryan Pulock, Matthew Schaefer | 2–1 | 20% → 35% |
| P2 3:56 | NYI | Marc Gatcomb from Casey Cizikas, Kyle MacLean | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:30 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Calum Ritchie, Anthony Duclair | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:27 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Braeden Bowman, Jack Eichel | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 10:15 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Mathew Barzal, Maksim Shabanov | 3–4 | 53% → 83% |
| P3 19:46 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Mitch Marner, Mark Stone | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:53 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:17 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.38 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 21:05 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.42 | +0.45 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:20 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 14:58 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:28 | +0.08 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:53 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 22:32 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 9:32 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:12 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 6:29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:43 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 17:21 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 24:30 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.35 | −0.08 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.49 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 7:08 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.33 | +0.24 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:11 | −0.18 | +0.39 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:28 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 63:48 | −1.60 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Heineman L | 16:24 | +1.22 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:47 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.09 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:14 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 20:00 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:18 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:45 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Mitchell D | 10:20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 10:46 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 28:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.22 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:42 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:19 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.76 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.49 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 29:12 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:31 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:40 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 14:41 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:47 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 23:30 | −0.49 | −0.27 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:58 | −0.72 | −0.65 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | +2.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.