CGY beat BUF 7–4. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Yegor Sharangovich scored at 9:54 of the first, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:54 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:22 | CGY | Rasmus AnderssonPP from Matt Coronato, Nazem Kadri | 0–2 | 74% → 84% |
| P2 4:24 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jason Zucker, Josh Norris | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 7:05 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Matt Coronato, Morgan Frost | 1–3 | 77% → 87% |
| P2 13:43 | BUF | Owen Power from Peyton Krebs, Jacob Bryson | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 14:14 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 16:32 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Josh Doan, Josh Norris | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 17:27 | CGY | Yan Kuznetsov from Blake Coleman | 3–5 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 17:29 | BUF | Alex TuchPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker | 4–5 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 18:12 | CGY | Mikael BacklundEN unassisted | 4–6 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:53 | CGY | Yegor SharangovichEN from Yan Kuznetsov | 4–7 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power D | 21:17 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:22 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.08 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.08 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:42 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:21 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 17:17 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:24 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 7:35 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 9:00 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 9:44 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:54 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:14 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 15:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:19 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:08 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 17:57 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 7:30 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:05 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 17:29 | +0.40 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 40:00 | −2.41 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 22:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:27 | 2 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:49 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:25 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.05 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 10:40 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:57 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 10:24 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 15:11 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 24:14 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 10:10 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 16:10 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 6:58 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:02 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.