VAN beat MIN 4–2. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 11:46 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Jesper Wallstedt allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:11 |  MIN | Matt Boldy from Mats Zuccarello, Yakov Trenin | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P2 9:29 | VAN | Tom Willander from Linus Karlsson, Jake DeBrusk | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:46 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Tom Willander, Aatu Räty | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:12 | VAN | Aatu Räty from Evander Kane | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 5:09 | VAN | Aatu Räty unassisted | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 17:22 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy | 2–4 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 21:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.06 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.05 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:07 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:54 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 12:25 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 19:40 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 6:57 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:20 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 25:06 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:42 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 8:14 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 9:34 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:19 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:20 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:12 | −0.65 | +0.06 | −0.71 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 57:05 | −1.98 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aatu Räty C | 14:09 | 2 | 1 | +1.70 | +0.03 | +1.56 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| Elias Pettersson D | 11:42 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.04 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Willander D | 13:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:56 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 11:32 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 17:57 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:49 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 7:27 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 6:35 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:01 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 15:38 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 22:14 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 17:41 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:28 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 9:54 | −0.28 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 23:34 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:23 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 21:15 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 59:32 | +1.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.