EDM beat WPG 6–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at 3:00 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:00 |  EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:37 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 7:24 | EDM | Matt Savoie from Mattias Ekholm, Vasily Podkolzin | 0–3 | 83% → 90% |
| P1 13:31 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 0–4 | 92% → 99% |
| P2 2:42 | EDM | Curtis Lazar from Mattias Janmark, Ty Emberson | 0–5 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 4:12 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 13:29 | EDM | David Tomasek from Trent Frederic | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:25 | WPG | Cole Koepke unassisted | 2–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Koepke L | 12:39 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:20 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 18:05 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 21:41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 14:08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:31 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:27 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 20:13 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:46 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 15:57 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:33 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 12:28 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 17:32 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Milic G | 40:00 | −0.68 |
| Eric Comrie G | 19:44 | −1.68 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard D | 20:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.05 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 16:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.78 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:48 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Tomasek R | 12:50 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:06 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.13 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 13:42 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:28 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Regula D | 21:33 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 17:36 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:11 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:22 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 18:17 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:14 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 11:39 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:41 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 18:38 | 2 | −0.54 | +0.13 | −0.75 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.