STL beat OTT 2–1. STL lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Neighbours scored at 17:36 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Joel Hofer saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:36 |  STL | Jake Neighbours from Brayden Schenn, Pius Suter | 1–0 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 0:12 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Pavel Buchnevich | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 15:39 | OTT | Fabian ZetterlundPP from Stephen Halliday, Claude Giroux | 2–1 | 1% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 15:15 | 2 | +1.04 | −0.01 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 19:10 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:08 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 25:35 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:46 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C | 7:39 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 0:53 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 8:45 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:32 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 12:40 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 11:10 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:05 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:55 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:49 | +3.11 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:52 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 13:10 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:03 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 14:46 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:25 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:59 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 21:18 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 14:57 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 11:12 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:04 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 1:53 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 31:04 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 20:32 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 22:22 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:56 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:35 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 23:24 | −0.56 | −0.11 | −0.59 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:26 | −0.66 | −0.06 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 57:55 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.