COL beat NYR 3–2 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored at 2:46 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:06 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Sam Malinski, Martin Necas | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 4:23 |  NYR | Conor Sheary from Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 15:26 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Martin Necas, Josh Manson | 2–1 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 19:18 | NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière | 2–2 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 2:46 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Cale Makar, Martin Necas | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:56 | 2 | +0.60 | +0.25 | +0.47 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 10:20 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.04 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 22:12 | 3 | +0.31 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 14:54 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 17:00 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 19:33 | +0.14 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 13:32 | +0.01 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 6:26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 22:43 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:37 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:02 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 18:09 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:40 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.29 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 12:22 | −0.29 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:17 | −0.32 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:16 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.49 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 62:46 | +0.04 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:12 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.57 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 23:38 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:42 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.06 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:35 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 16:05 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:57 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 7:54 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 6:09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 21:25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Berard L | 10:46 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:54 | −0.12 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 22:40 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 15:25 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:17 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:19 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 8:20 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 13:28 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 15:56 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 61:22 | +1.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.